**Executive takeaway:** TSAT is a *legacy cash-generating GEO satellite operator* that is simultaneously executing a *high-stakes LEO build (Telesat Lightspeed)* funded by unusually structured government-backed delayed-draw loans that come with **warrants + a large Level 3 derivative liability** that can swing reported earnings without affecting cash. ["two operating segments: GEO and LEO"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["completion of funding agreements… $2.54 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["designated at fair value through profit and loss… Level 3"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## TSAT “filings-only” navigator (pick a lane) If you’re reading this like a dossier, here are the 5 deepest, easiest-to-miss threads in the filings: 1) **The “Non‑Obligor vs Obligor” boundary** (what collateral backs which debt; where Lightspeed sits). ["Non-Obligors include… Lightspeed…"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["secured by… excluding the assets of the Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) 2) **Lightspeed financing mechanics** (delayed draw, CORRA+4.75%, PIK interest during construction, sculpted amortization). ["floating interest rate… 4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 3) **Warrants → embedded derivatives → earnings volatility** (why TSAT can show big losses/gains even with no “business collapse”). ["loss… due to… derivative liabilities"](0001213900-25-105592|1) 4) **Customer + backlog concentration** (top 5 = majority of revenue; top 5 backlog customers = most of backlog). ["top five… accounted for approximately 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["top five backlog customers… 81%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 5) **GEO broadcast dependency + secular decline pressure** (DTH dynamics). ["approximately 95%… broadcast revenue"](0001013762-25-002971|0) --- ## 1) Corporate / legal structure: the “map” you only see if you read the notes TSAT’s filings repeatedly draw an *internal border* between entities that are **obligors under the “Telesat Canada debt”** package and entities that are **not** (the “Non‑Obligors”)—and Lightspeed is explicitly inside the Non‑Obligor side. That matters because it determines **what lenders can seize** and **how ring-fenced Lightspeed is meant to be**. ["Non-Obligors include… Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership"](0001213900-25-105592|1) A very “Alpha Analyst” nuance: in the Q3’25 interim financials, TSAT states that the **Telesat Lightspeed Financing** is secured by Lightspeed assets held by the Non‑Obligors, while the classic secured stack (credit facilities + secured notes) is secured by substantially all assets **excluding** Non‑Obligors. This is the kind of collateral partitioning that is easy to miss unless you read the pledge language carefully. ["Senior Secured Credit Facilities… secured by… excluding… Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["Telesat Lightspeed Financing is secured by… assets relating to… held by the Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## 2) Operating reality: GEO today vs LEO tomorrow (and why the segment split matters) TSAT explicitly reports **two operating segments: GEO and LEO**. ["two operating segments… GEO and LEO"](0001213900-25-105592|1) What’s counterintuitive (and easy to misread): in the Sep 30, 2025 interim segment tables, **LEO revenue is tiny** (it’s essentially “consulting and other” type revenue), while GEO is still the economic engine. For nine months ended Sep 30: | Metric (CAD, thousands) | GEO | LEO | |---|---:|---:| | Revenue, 9M ended Sep 30, 2025 | 321,395 ["321,395"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 2,520 ["2,520"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Revenue, 9M ended Sep 30, 2024 | 429,404 ["429,404"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 13,645 ["13,645"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | So the near-term TSAT story is still “manage GEO decline + fund LEO build.” --- ## 3) Lightspeed financing: unusually explicit terms (and the hidden economics) ### 3.1 What TSAT says the Lightspeed loans look like (in plain English) In its FY2024 20‑F, TSAT describes the Lightspeed financing as **$2.14B (Canada) + $400M (Quebec)** with a floating rate of **CORRA + 4.75%**, **15‑year maturity**, and **interest payable in‑kind during construction** followed by **10‑year sculpted amortization**. ["loan is for $2.14 billion… 4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["Interest is payable in-kind… followed by a 10-year sculpted amortization"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 3.2 The warrants are not a side detail—they are a core part of the price The same disclosure says the Canada loan comes with **warrants for 10% of Telesat LEO** (based on an equity valuation of **US$3B**) and Quebec with **1.87%**, collectively **11.87% fully diluted**. ["warrants for 10%… based upon… US$3 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["warrants for 1.87%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["equivalent to 11.87%… fully diluted"](0001013762-25-002971|0) Here’s the “hard-to-find” accounting punchline: TSAT states these warrants **fail fixed‑for‑fixed equity classification** and are treated as **fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), Level 3**. That means **reported earnings volatility** can be driven by valuation changes in an instrument that is economically tied to Lightspeed equity value. ["fail to meet fixed-for-fixed… designated at fair value through profit and loss… Level 3"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 3.3 The September 2025 reorg quietly changed what the warrants attach to In the Sep 30, 2025 interim report, TSAT describes a corporate reorganization where Telesat LEO Inc. exchanged shares for LP units in a new **Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership**, and the warrants were amended so they became exercisable for **11.87% of the LP units** (terms “remain unchanged” otherwise). This is a classic “if you blink you miss it” disclosure that matters for how the instrument converts economically. ["warrants… change the issuing entity… Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["became exercisable for 11.87% of the limited partnership units"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ### 3.4 One table to anchor the Lightspeed financing “shape” | Component | Key terms (as disclosed) | |---|---| | Canada loan | $2.14B CAD ["loan is for $2.14 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • CORRA + 4.75% ["4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • 15-year maturity ["15-year maturity"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • PIK interest during construction ["Interest is payable in-kind"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Quebec loan | $400M CAD ["loan is for $400 million"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • “largely mirror” Canada terms ["terms that largely mirror"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Warrants (economic kicker) | 10% (Canada) ["warrants for 10%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) + 1.87% (Quebec) ["warrants for 1.87%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) = 11.87% fully diluted ["equivalent to 11.87%"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • exercisable 2 years after issuance (Nov 15, 2026) ["after the second anniversary… (November 15, 2026)"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • term to Nov 15, 2034 ["up to 10 years… (November 15, 2034)"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • Level 3 FVTPL ["Level 3 instrument"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | --- ## 4) “Non-cash volatility engine”: how the warrants flow through the financials TSAT explicitly attributes a 2025 YTD loss driver to **“loss on changes in fair value of financial instruments”** tied to the **derivative liabilities associated with the warrants**. ["loss… due to… derivative liabilities associated with the warrants"](0001213900-25-105592|1) That’s the mechanic to internalize: - The warrants create a **derivative liability** at fair value, remeasured each period. ["fair value… embedded derivatives… recorded"](0001013762-25-002971|0) - Revaluation hits P&L even if there’s no cash movement. ["non-cash"](0001013762-25-002971|0) - As TSAT draws on the Lightspeed loan, it also describes **non-cash transfers** from deferred charges into the debt/financing-cost construct (amortized via effective interest). ["transferred to debt issue costs"](0001213900-25-105592|1) This is why a TSAT income statement can look “wild” even when the business is simply executing a build plan and marking an option-like instrument. --- ## 5) Capital structure snapshot: TSAT’s debt stack (plus the new Lightspeed layer) In the Sep 30, 2025 interim statements, TSAT shows indebtedness including classic “Telesat Canada debt” and now also the new government Lightspeed financing draws. (All amounts are **CAD thousands**.) | Debt line item | Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | |---|---:|---:| | Term Loan B – U.S. Facility | 1,838,179 ["1,838,179"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 1,889,451 ["1,889,451"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2027 Senior Unsecured Notes | 296,545 ["296,545"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 318,246 ["318,246"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2026 Senior Secured Notes | 538,769 ["538,769"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 566,728 ["566,728"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2027 Senior Secured Notes | 313,192 ["313,192"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 323,633 ["323,633"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Gov’t of Canada Lightspeed Financing (drawn balance) | 355,111 ["355,111"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | — ["—"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Gov’t of Quebec Lightspeed Financing (drawn balance) | 66,376 ["66,376"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | — ["—"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Total (before netting deferred items) | 3,408,172 ["3,408,172"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 3,098,058 ["3,098,058"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | Also notable: TSAT discloses that the Lightspeed loan balances include **interest added to principal** and provides detail on advances (including an additional advance after quarter-end). ["interest… added to the principal balance"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["additional advance… on October 29, 2025"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## 6) Revenue visibility vs concentration risk: backlog + customer concentration ### 6.1 Backlog definition (TSAT’s own words) TSAT defines “remaining performance obligations” as contracted revenue backlog including deferred revenue to be recognized in the future, and it *excludes* renewals beyond contract expiration. ["represents our expected future revenue… including any deferred revenue"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["do not include revenue beyond… expiration"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 6.2 Backlog schedule (FY2024) | Backlog recognition (CAD millions) | Amount | |---|---:| | 2025 | 359 ["359"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2026 | 234 ["234"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2027 | 163 ["163"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2028 | 98 ["98"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2029 | 79 ["79"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Thereafter | 185 ["185"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | **Total** | **1,118** ["1,118"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | TSAT also states contracted revenue backlog as **~$1.1B as of Dec 31, 2024**, excluding Lightspeed commitments. ["contracted backlog was approximately $1.1 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 6.3 Concentration: the “few-customer” problem is explicit TSAT discloses: **top five customers ≈ 63% of revenue** and **top five backlog customers ≈ 81% of backlog** (FY2024). ["top five customers… 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["top five backlog customers… 81%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) This is critical because it means TSAT’s backlog is not just a “visibility” number—**it’s also a dependency map**. --- ## 7) GEO fragility: broadcast/DTH dependence and secular decline pressure TSAT states that in FY2024, **~95% of broadcast revenue** came from **North American DTH television services**, and it discusses declining DTH subscribers plus competition from terrestrial/OTT. ["approximately 95%… derived from North American DTH"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["terrestrial networks… advantages… OTT"](0001013762-25-002971|0) This is the core reason the LEO build matters strategically: GEO video is high-cash-flow but faces structural demand pressure. --- ## 8) “Alpha Analyst watchlist”: the filings-based variables that will move TSAT Not advice—just the levers TSAT itself highlights, framed so you can interrogate the next filing quickly: 1) **Lightspeed drawdown conditions / covenant compliance** (ability to fully draw is conditional). ["ability to draw… dependent on… covenants… milestones"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 2) **Derivative liability trajectory** (non-cash P&L volatility). ["changes in fair value… recorded… and are non-cash"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 3) **Customer/backlog churn** (top five dependence). ["top five… 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 4) **GEO broadcast headwinds** (DTH decline). ["number of DTH subscribers… decreasing"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 5) **Launch timing risk** (TSAT references mid‑2026 first Lightspeed satellites). ["launch… in mid-2026"](0001013762-25-002971|0) --- ### Want to “stress test” this dossier interactively (without you giving me extra inputs)? You can simply say any of these commands and I’ll respond using *only* the filings already identified: - “**TSAT: explain the collateral package and who has claims on what**” - “**TSAT: quantify how the warrants can change earnings (walk me through the accounting)**” - “**TSAT: summarize customer concentration + where backlog is coming from**” - “**TSAT: build a timeline of Lightspeed financing draws + milestones disclosed**”

**Executive takeaway:** TSAT is a *legacy cash-generating GEO satellite operator* that is simultaneously executing a *high-stakes LEO build (Telesat Lightspeed)* funded by unusually structured government-backed delayed-draw loans that come with **warrants + a large Level 3 derivative liability** that can swing reported earnings without affecting cash. ["two operating segments: GEO and LEO"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["completion of funding agreements… $2.54 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["designated at fair value through profit and loss… Level 3"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## TSAT “filings-only” navigator (pick a lane) If you’re reading this like a dossier, here are the 5 deepest, easiest-to-miss threads in the filings: 1) **The “Non‑Obligor vs Obligor” boundary** (what collateral backs which debt; where Lightspeed sits). ["Non-Obligors include… Lightspeed…"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["secured by… excluding the assets of the Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) 2) **Lightspeed financing mechanics** (delayed draw, CORRA+4.75%, PIK interest during construction, sculpted amortization). ["floating interest rate… 4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 3) **Warrants → embedded derivatives → earnings volatility** (why TSAT can show big losses/gains even with no “business collapse”). ["loss… due to… derivative liabilities"](0001213900-25-105592|1) 4) **Customer + backlog concentration** (top 5 = majority of revenue; top 5 backlog customers = most of backlog). ["top five… accounted for approximately 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["top five backlog customers… 81%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 5) **GEO broadcast dependency + secular decline pressure** (DTH dynamics). ["approximately 95%… broadcast revenue"](0001013762-25-002971|0) --- ## 1) Corporate / legal structure: the “map” you only see if you read the notes TSAT’s filings repeatedly draw an *internal border* between entities that are **obligors under the “Telesat Canada debt”** package and entities that are **not** (the “Non‑Obligors”)—and Lightspeed is explicitly inside the Non‑Obligor side. That matters because it determines **what lenders can seize** and **how ring-fenced Lightspeed is meant to be**. ["Non-Obligors include… Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership"](0001213900-25-105592|1) A very “Alpha Analyst” nuance: in the Q3’25 interim financials, TSAT states that the **Telesat Lightspeed Financing** is secured by Lightspeed assets held by the Non‑Obligors, while the classic secured stack (credit facilities + secured notes) is secured by substantially all assets **excluding** Non‑Obligors. This is the kind of collateral partitioning that is easy to miss unless you read the pledge language carefully. ["Senior Secured Credit Facilities… secured by… excluding… Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["Telesat Lightspeed Financing is secured by… assets relating to… held by the Non-Obligors"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## 2) Operating reality: GEO today vs LEO tomorrow (and why the segment split matters) TSAT explicitly reports **two operating segments: GEO and LEO**. ["two operating segments… GEO and LEO"](0001213900-25-105592|1) What’s counterintuitive (and easy to misread): in the Sep 30, 2025 interim segment tables, **LEO revenue is tiny** (it’s essentially “consulting and other” type revenue), while GEO is still the economic engine. For nine months ended Sep 30: | Metric (CAD, thousands) | GEO | LEO | |---|---:|---:| | Revenue, 9M ended Sep 30, 2025 | 321,395 ["321,395"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 2,520 ["2,520"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Revenue, 9M ended Sep 30, 2024 | 429,404 ["429,404"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 13,645 ["13,645"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | So the near-term TSAT story is still “manage GEO decline + fund LEO build.” --- ## 3) Lightspeed financing: unusually explicit terms (and the hidden economics) ### 3.1 What TSAT says the Lightspeed loans look like (in plain English) In its FY2024 20‑F, TSAT describes the Lightspeed financing as **$2.14B (Canada) + $400M (Quebec)** with a floating rate of **CORRA + 4.75%**, **15‑year maturity**, and **interest payable in‑kind during construction** followed by **10‑year sculpted amortization**. ["loan is for $2.14 billion… 4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["Interest is payable in-kind… followed by a 10-year sculpted amortization"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 3.2 The warrants are not a side detail—they are a core part of the price The same disclosure says the Canada loan comes with **warrants for 10% of Telesat LEO** (based on an equity valuation of **US$3B**) and Quebec with **1.87%**, collectively **11.87% fully diluted**. ["warrants for 10%… based upon… US$3 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["warrants for 1.87%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["equivalent to 11.87%… fully diluted"](0001013762-25-002971|0) Here’s the “hard-to-find” accounting punchline: TSAT states these warrants **fail fixed‑for‑fixed equity classification** and are treated as **fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), Level 3**. That means **reported earnings volatility** can be driven by valuation changes in an instrument that is economically tied to Lightspeed equity value. ["fail to meet fixed-for-fixed… designated at fair value through profit and loss… Level 3"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 3.3 The September 2025 reorg quietly changed what the warrants attach to In the Sep 30, 2025 interim report, TSAT describes a corporate reorganization where Telesat LEO Inc. exchanged shares for LP units in a new **Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership**, and the warrants were amended so they became exercisable for **11.87% of the LP units** (terms “remain unchanged” otherwise). This is a classic “if you blink you miss it” disclosure that matters for how the instrument converts economically. ["warrants… change the issuing entity… Lightspeed LEO Limited Partnership"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["became exercisable for 11.87% of the limited partnership units"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ### 3.4 One table to anchor the Lightspeed financing “shape” | Component | Key terms (as disclosed) | |---|---| | Canada loan | $2.14B CAD ["loan is for $2.14 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • CORRA + 4.75% ["4.75% above… CORRA"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • 15-year maturity ["15-year maturity"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • PIK interest during construction ["Interest is payable in-kind"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Quebec loan | $400M CAD ["loan is for $400 million"](0001013762-25-002971|0) • “largely mirror” Canada terms ["terms that largely mirror"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Warrants (economic kicker) | 10% (Canada) ["warrants for 10%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) + 1.87% (Quebec) ["warrants for 1.87%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) = 11.87% fully diluted ["equivalent to 11.87%"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • exercisable 2 years after issuance (Nov 15, 2026) ["after the second anniversary… (November 15, 2026)"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • term to Nov 15, 2034 ["up to 10 years… (November 15, 2034)"](0001213900-25-105592|1) • Level 3 FVTPL ["Level 3 instrument"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | --- ## 4) “Non-cash volatility engine”: how the warrants flow through the financials TSAT explicitly attributes a 2025 YTD loss driver to **“loss on changes in fair value of financial instruments”** tied to the **derivative liabilities associated with the warrants**. ["loss… due to… derivative liabilities associated with the warrants"](0001213900-25-105592|1) That’s the mechanic to internalize: - The warrants create a **derivative liability** at fair value, remeasured each period. ["fair value… embedded derivatives… recorded"](0001013762-25-002971|0) - Revaluation hits P&L even if there’s no cash movement. ["non-cash"](0001013762-25-002971|0) - As TSAT draws on the Lightspeed loan, it also describes **non-cash transfers** from deferred charges into the debt/financing-cost construct (amortized via effective interest). ["transferred to debt issue costs"](0001213900-25-105592|1) This is why a TSAT income statement can look “wild” even when the business is simply executing a build plan and marking an option-like instrument. --- ## 5) Capital structure snapshot: TSAT’s debt stack (plus the new Lightspeed layer) In the Sep 30, 2025 interim statements, TSAT shows indebtedness including classic “Telesat Canada debt” and now also the new government Lightspeed financing draws. (All amounts are **CAD thousands**.) | Debt line item | Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | |---|---:|---:| | Term Loan B – U.S. Facility | 1,838,179 ["1,838,179"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 1,889,451 ["1,889,451"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2027 Senior Unsecured Notes | 296,545 ["296,545"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 318,246 ["318,246"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2026 Senior Secured Notes | 538,769 ["538,769"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 566,728 ["566,728"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | 2027 Senior Secured Notes | 313,192 ["313,192"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 323,633 ["323,633"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Gov’t of Canada Lightspeed Financing (drawn balance) | 355,111 ["355,111"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | — ["—"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Gov’t of Quebec Lightspeed Financing (drawn balance) | 66,376 ["66,376"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | — ["—"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | | Total (before netting deferred items) | 3,408,172 ["3,408,172"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | 3,098,058 ["3,098,058"](0001213900-25-105592|1) | Also notable: TSAT discloses that the Lightspeed loan balances include **interest added to principal** and provides detail on advances (including an additional advance after quarter-end). ["interest… added to the principal balance"](0001213900-25-105592|1) ["additional advance… on October 29, 2025"](0001213900-25-105592|1) --- ## 6) Revenue visibility vs concentration risk: backlog + customer concentration ### 6.1 Backlog definition (TSAT’s own words) TSAT defines “remaining performance obligations” as contracted revenue backlog including deferred revenue to be recognized in the future, and it *excludes* renewals beyond contract expiration. ["represents our expected future revenue… including any deferred revenue"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["do not include revenue beyond… expiration"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 6.2 Backlog schedule (FY2024) | Backlog recognition (CAD millions) | Amount | |---|---:| | 2025 | 359 ["359"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2026 | 234 ["234"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2027 | 163 ["163"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2028 | 98 ["98"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | 2029 | 79 ["79"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | Thereafter | 185 ["185"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | | **Total** | **1,118** ["1,118"](0001013762-25-002971|0) | TSAT also states contracted revenue backlog as **~$1.1B as of Dec 31, 2024**, excluding Lightspeed commitments. ["contracted backlog was approximately $1.1 billion"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ### 6.3 Concentration: the “few-customer” problem is explicit TSAT discloses: **top five customers ≈ 63% of revenue** and **top five backlog customers ≈ 81% of backlog** (FY2024). ["top five customers… 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["top five backlog customers… 81%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) This is critical because it means TSAT’s backlog is not just a “visibility” number—**it’s also a dependency map**. --- ## 7) GEO fragility: broadcast/DTH dependence and secular decline pressure TSAT states that in FY2024, **~95% of broadcast revenue** came from **North American DTH television services**, and it discusses declining DTH subscribers plus competition from terrestrial/OTT. ["approximately 95%… derived from North American DTH"](0001013762-25-002971|0) ["terrestrial networks… advantages… OTT"](0001013762-25-002971|0) This is the core reason the LEO build matters strategically: GEO video is high-cash-flow but faces structural demand pressure. --- ## 8) “Alpha Analyst watchlist”: the filings-based variables that will move TSAT Not advice—just the levers TSAT itself highlights, framed so you can interrogate the next filing quickly: 1) **Lightspeed drawdown conditions / covenant compliance** (ability to fully draw is conditional). ["ability to draw… dependent on… covenants… milestones"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 2) **Derivative liability trajectory** (non-cash P&L volatility). ["changes in fair value… recorded… and are non-cash"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 3) **Customer/backlog churn** (top five dependence). ["top five… 63%"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 4) **GEO broadcast headwinds** (DTH decline). ["number of DTH subscribers… decreasing"](0001013762-25-002971|0) 5) **Launch timing risk** (TSAT references mid‑2026 first Lightspeed satellites). ["launch… in mid-2026"](0001013762-25-002971|0) --- ### Want to “stress test” this dossier interactively (without you giving me extra inputs)? You can simply say any of these commands and I’ll respond using *only* the filings already identified: - “**TSAT: explain the collateral package and who has claims on what**” - “**TSAT: quantify how the warrants can change earnings (walk me through the accounting)**” - “**TSAT: summarize customer concentration + where backlog is coming from**” - “**TSAT: build a timeline of Lightspeed financing draws + milestones disclosed**”