## NVIDIA (NVDA) — filings-driven deep dive (with built-in “choose what to read next” structure) **Primary source set used:** FY2025 Form 10‑K (fiscal year ended **Jan 26, 2025**), latest available 10‑Q (quarter ended **Oct 26, 2025**) and the corresponding earnings-release exhibit (8‑K Ex‑99.1), plus FY2025 proxy statement (DEF 14A). ["Annual Report on Form 10‑K for the fiscal year ended January 26, 2025"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Quarterly Report on Form 10‑Q"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Outlook"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["Proxy Statement"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### Quick navigation (pick a lane) 1) **What NVDA “is” today (business + segments)** → Section A 2) **Financial engine (FY + latest quarter tables)** → Section B 3) **Unit economics & capital intensity (margins, opex, capex, commitments)** → Section C 4) **Key risks (export controls, supply chain concentration, etc.)** → Section D 5) **Governance & incentives (proxy: pay design, metrics, CEO comp table)** → Section E --- ## A) What NVIDIA is (from disclosures) ### A1) NVIDIA reports **two operating segments** In the most recent 10‑Q, management describes two operating segments: **Compute & Networking** and **Graphics**. ["Our two operating segments are \"Compute & Networking\" and \"Graphics\""](0001045810-25-000230|0) **Segment definitions (10‑Q):** - **Compute & Networking** includes “Data Center accelerated computing platforms,” AI software, networking, automotive platforms, Jetson, and DGX Cloud. ["The Compute & Networking segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Graphics** includes GeForce (gaming), GeForce NOW, RTX/Quadro workstation, virtual GPU software, and Omniverse Enterprise. ["The Graphics segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### A2) How NVDA frames its “platform thesis” NVIDIA describes itself as having “pioneered accelerated computing” and expanded from PC graphics into AI, data science, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and digital twin applications. ["NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## B) Financial engine (tables you can “read sideways”) ### B1) FY2025–FY2023 income statement (GAAP, USD millions) Source: FY2025 10‑K consolidated statements. ["Consolidated Statements of Income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | Metric (USD mm) | FY2025 (Jan 26, 2025) | FY2024 (Jan 28, 2024) | FY2023 (Jan 29, 2023) | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Revenue | 130,497 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 60,922 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 26,974 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Gross profit | 97,858 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 44,301 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 15,356 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | **Gross margin %** | 75.0% **(computed)** | 72.7% **(computed)** | 56.9% **(computed)** | computed from revenue & gross profit above ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | R&D | 12,914 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 8,675 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 7,339 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | SG&A | 3,491 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 2,654 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 2,440 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Operating income | 81,453 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 32,972 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 4,224 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | **Operating margin %** | 62.4% **(computed)** | 54.1% **(computed)** | 15.7% **(computed)** | computed from operating income & revenue above ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Net income | 72,880 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 29,760 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 4,368 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Diluted EPS (USD) | 2.94 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1.19 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 0.17 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | **Read on it (what matters):** FY2025 is a step-change year in scale and profitability—revenue more than doubled vs FY2024 (computed) and operating margin expanded as gross margin rose and opex scaled. ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) --- ### B2) Where revenue comes from (end markets) — FY2025–FY2023 (USD millions) Source: FY2025 10‑K Note disclosure table “Revenue by End Market”. ["Revenue by End Market"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | End market (USD mm) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | |---|---:|---:|---:| | Data Center | 115,186 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 47,525 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 15,005 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Gaming | 11,350 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 10,447 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 9,067 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Professional Visualization | 1,878 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,553 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,544 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Automotive | 1,694 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,091 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 903 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | OEM and Other | 389 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 306 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 455 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | **Total** | 130,497 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 60,922 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 26,974 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | **Interpretation:** The filings show the business becoming **Data Center-led** in a way that dominates the mix (FY2025 Data Center revenue is ~88% of total, computed). ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) --- ### B3) Latest quarter snapshot (GAAP + non‑GAAP bridge view) Source: 8‑K earnings release exhibit (Q3 FY26). ["GAAP"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["Non-GAAP"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | Metric | Q3 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | Q/Q | Y/Y | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Revenue (USD mm) | 57,006 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 46,743 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 35,082 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 22% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 62% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP gross margin | 73.4% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 72.4% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 74.6% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | +1.0 pts ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | −1.2 pts ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP operating income (USD mm) | 36,010 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 28,440 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 21,869 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 27% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 65% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP EPS (diluted) | 1.30 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 1.08 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 0.78 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 20% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 67% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | **Forward-looking anchor (company outlook):** Q4 FY26 revenue expected **$65.0B ±2%** with GAAP gross margin **74.8% ±50 bps** and GAAP opex **~$6.7B**. ["Revenue is expected to be $65.0 billion"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses"](0001045810-25-000228|1) --- ## C) Economics, capital intensity, and “hidden drivers” ### C1) Balance sheet scale-up (latest 10‑Q balance sheet) Source: 10‑Q condensed consolidated balance sheets (Oct 26, 2025 vs Jan 26, 2025). ["Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | Balance sheet item (USD mm) | Oct 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | |---|---:|---:| | Cash & cash equivalents | 11,486 ["Cash and cash equivalents"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 8,589 ["Cash and cash equivalents"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Marketable securities | 49,122 ["Marketable securities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 34,621 ["Marketable securities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Accounts receivable, net | 33,391 ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 23,065 ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Inventories | 19,784 ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 10,080 ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Total assets | 161,148 ["Total assets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 111,601 ["Total assets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Short‑term debt | 999 ["Short-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | — ["Short-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Long‑term debt | 7,468 ["Long-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 8,463 ["Long-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Total shareholders’ equity | 118,897 ["Total shareholders' equity"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 79,327 ["Total shareholders' equity"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | **What to watch:** receivables + inventories expanded sharply alongside revenue, and the filings show significant supply/production commitments (next section). ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ### C2) Cash flow and capital return “tells” Source: 10‑Q condensed consolidated cash flow statement (nine months ended). ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | Cash flow (USD mm) | 9M ended Oct 26, 2025 | 9M ended Oct 27, 2024 | |---|---:|---:| | Net cash from operations | 66,530 ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 47,460 ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Capex + intangibles purchases | (4,758) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (2,159) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Stock repurchases (cash paid) | (36,271) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (25,895) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Dividends paid | (732) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (589) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | **Read on it:** NVDA is simultaneously (i) generating very large operating cash flows and (ii) returning enormous capital via buybacks, while also increasing capex—so the “real” reinvestment rate isn’t just R&D; it’s also infrastructure and supply commitments. ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ### C3) Commitments: supply/production + cloud capacity (important for durability vs. flexibility) The 10‑Q discloses very large forward commitments: - **Manufacturing production / supply / capacity commitments:** **$50.3B**, “substantially all” to be paid through FY2027. ["these commitments were $50.3 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["paid through fiscal year 2027"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Multi-year cloud service agreement commitments:** **$26B** with an annual payment schedule out through “2031 & thereafter.” ["Multi-year cloud service agreement commitments"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["$26 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) **Why it matters (mechanics):** These disclosures indicate NVDA is locking in both **hardware supply capacity** and **cloud capacity** to support R&D and DGX Cloud, which can improve execution certainty but can also raise downside risk if demand or product mix shifts. ["We expect cloud service agreements"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["long lead and cycle times"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## D) Risk map (filings language, then “what it implies”) ### D1) Export controls & geopolitics (strategic risk, not just compliance) The 10‑K states export controls have already harmed competitive position and further changes could further harm results, including potentially excluding NVDA “from all or part of the China market,” and mentions other impacted markets (Middle East and “Tier 2” countries). ["competitive position has been harmed"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["excluding us from all or part of the China market"](0001045810-25-000023|0) **Implication:** This is a *structural* risk because it can force product redesigns, change addressable market, and interact with supply chain location constraints (the filing explicitly links export controls to supply chain resiliency). ["supply chain, which is currently concentrated"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ### D2) Supply chain concentration The same risk discussion notes the supply chain is “currently concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region,” and that export controls “could limit alternative manufacturing locations.” ["concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["could limit alternative manufacturing locations"](0001045810-25-000023|0) **Implication:** Even with strong demand, the binding constraint can become (a) permitted destinations and (b) manufacturable configurations—not just wafers or packaging availability. --- ## E) Governance & incentives (proxy disclosures you can sanity-check) ### E1) Executive pay design: what they say they optimize for The proxy frames executive compensation as “pay for performance,” with heavy performance-based weighting (e.g., “over 90% of our CEO’s… target pay… performance-based and at-risk” and “100% of our CEO’s equity awards… PSUs”). ["over 90% of our CEO’s"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["100% of our CEO’s equity awards"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### E2) The performance scorecard they used (FY2025) The proxy shows: - Variable cash tied to **Fiscal 2025 revenue** thresholds/base/stretch. - Annual PSUs tied to **Fiscal 2025 Non‑GAAP operating income**. - Multi-year PSUs tied to **3‑year TSR vs S&P 500**. ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Non-GAAP Operating Income"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["TSR relative to the S&P 500"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### E3) CEO compensation table (FY2025) From the **Summary Compensation Table** (proxy): CEO (Jen‑Hsun Huang) FY2025 total compensation **$49.866M**, including salary **$1.486M**, stock awards **$38.811M**, and non‑equity incentive comp **$6.0M**. ["Jen-Hsun Huang"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Total ($)"](0001045810-25-000095|0) --- ## “Interactive” self-checks you can run immediately (no extra inputs needed) ### 1) Segment concentration check (latest 10‑Q) Compute & Networking contributed **$50.908B of $57.006B** revenue in Q3 FY26 (10‑Q), i.e., ~89% (computed). ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### 2) Customer concentration (latest 10‑Q) The 10‑Q states that in Q3 FY26, **four direct customers** were each >10% of revenue (22%, 15%, 13%, 11%), all in Compute & Networking. ["four direct customers"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["22%"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### 3) Capital return aggressiveness (latest 10‑Q) Over the first nine months of FY26, NVDA paid **$36.271B** for repurchases and **$0.732B** in dividends. ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## If you want a “next click” (you can pick any one) - **Moat teardown:** map “platform + ecosystem + switching costs” to the two segments described in the 10‑Q. ["The Compute & Networking segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Financial durability stress test:** combine (i) customer concentration, (ii) export control risk, and (iii) $50.3B supply commitments into one downside narrative. ["four direct customers"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["export control rules"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["commitments were $50.3 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Governance/comp alignment audit:** trace proxy performance metrics back to 10‑K/10‑Q GAAP outcomes and margin path. ["Fiscal 2025 Revenue"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Non-GAAP Operating Income"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) If you tell me which “next click” you want, I’ll expand that module into a full mini‑report using the same filings-only evidence style.

## NVIDIA (NVDA) — filings-driven deep dive (with built-in “choose what to read next” structure) **Primary source set used:** FY2025 Form 10‑K (fiscal year ended **Jan 26, 2025**), latest available 10‑Q (quarter ended **Oct 26, 2025**) and the corresponding earnings-release exhibit (8‑K Ex‑99.1), plus FY2025 proxy statement (DEF 14A). ["Annual Report on Form 10‑K for the fiscal year ended January 26, 2025"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Quarterly Report on Form 10‑Q"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Outlook"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["Proxy Statement"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### Quick navigation (pick a lane) 1) **What NVDA “is” today (business + segments)** → Section A 2) **Financial engine (FY + latest quarter tables)** → Section B 3) **Unit economics & capital intensity (margins, opex, capex, commitments)** → Section C 4) **Key risks (export controls, supply chain concentration, etc.)** → Section D 5) **Governance & incentives (proxy: pay design, metrics, CEO comp table)** → Section E --- ## A) What NVIDIA is (from disclosures) ### A1) NVIDIA reports **two operating segments** In the most recent 10‑Q, management describes two operating segments: **Compute & Networking** and **Graphics**. ["Our two operating segments are \"Compute & Networking\" and \"Graphics\""](0001045810-25-000230|0) **Segment definitions (10‑Q):** - **Compute & Networking** includes “Data Center accelerated computing platforms,” AI software, networking, automotive platforms, Jetson, and DGX Cloud. ["The Compute & Networking segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Graphics** includes GeForce (gaming), GeForce NOW, RTX/Quadro workstation, virtual GPU software, and Omniverse Enterprise. ["The Graphics segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### A2) How NVDA frames its “platform thesis” NVIDIA describes itself as having “pioneered accelerated computing” and expanded from PC graphics into AI, data science, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and digital twin applications. ["NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## B) Financial engine (tables you can “read sideways”) ### B1) FY2025–FY2023 income statement (GAAP, USD millions) Source: FY2025 10‑K consolidated statements. ["Consolidated Statements of Income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | Metric (USD mm) | FY2025 (Jan 26, 2025) | FY2024 (Jan 28, 2024) | FY2023 (Jan 29, 2023) | Notes | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Revenue | 130,497 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 60,922 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 26,974 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Gross profit | 97,858 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 44,301 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 15,356 ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | **Gross margin %** | 75.0% **(computed)** | 72.7% **(computed)** | 56.9% **(computed)** | computed from revenue & gross profit above ["Gross profit"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | R&D | 12,914 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 8,675 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 7,339 ["Research and development"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | SG&A | 3,491 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 2,654 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 2,440 ["Sales, general and administrative"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Operating income | 81,453 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 32,972 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 4,224 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | **Operating margin %** | 62.4% **(computed)** | 54.1% **(computed)** | 15.7% **(computed)** | computed from operating income & revenue above ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Net income | 72,880 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 29,760 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 4,368 ["Net income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | | Diluted EPS (USD) | 2.94 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1.19 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 0.17 ["Diluted"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | — | **Read on it (what matters):** FY2025 is a step-change year in scale and profitability—revenue more than doubled vs FY2024 (computed) and operating margin expanded as gross margin rose and opex scaled. ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) --- ### B2) Where revenue comes from (end markets) — FY2025–FY2023 (USD millions) Source: FY2025 10‑K Note disclosure table “Revenue by End Market”. ["Revenue by End Market"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | End market (USD mm) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | |---|---:|---:|---:| | Data Center | 115,186 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 47,525 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 15,005 ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Gaming | 11,350 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 10,447 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 9,067 ["Gaming"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Professional Visualization | 1,878 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,553 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,544 ["Professional Visualization"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | Automotive | 1,694 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 1,091 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 903 ["Automotive"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | OEM and Other | 389 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 306 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 455 ["OEM and Other"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | | **Total** | 130,497 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 60,922 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | 26,974 ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) | **Interpretation:** The filings show the business becoming **Data Center-led** in a way that dominates the mix (FY2025 Data Center revenue is ~88% of total, computed). ["Data Center"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["Total revenue"](0001045810-25-000023|0) --- ### B3) Latest quarter snapshot (GAAP + non‑GAAP bridge view) Source: 8‑K earnings release exhibit (Q3 FY26). ["GAAP"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["Non-GAAP"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | Metric | Q3 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | Q/Q | Y/Y | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Revenue (USD mm) | 57,006 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 46,743 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 35,082 ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 22% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 62% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP gross margin | 73.4% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 72.4% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 74.6% ["Gross margin"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | +1.0 pts ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | −1.2 pts ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP operating income (USD mm) | 36,010 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 28,440 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 21,869 ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 27% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 65% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | | GAAP EPS (diluted) | 1.30 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 1.08 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 0.78 ["Diluted earnings per share"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 20% ["Q/Q"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | 67% ["Y/Y"](0001045810-25-000228|1) | **Forward-looking anchor (company outlook):** Q4 FY26 revenue expected **$65.0B ±2%** with GAAP gross margin **74.8% ±50 bps** and GAAP opex **~$6.7B**. ["Revenue is expected to be $65.0 billion"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins"](0001045810-25-000228|1) ["GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses"](0001045810-25-000228|1) --- ## C) Economics, capital intensity, and “hidden drivers” ### C1) Balance sheet scale-up (latest 10‑Q balance sheet) Source: 10‑Q condensed consolidated balance sheets (Oct 26, 2025 vs Jan 26, 2025). ["Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | Balance sheet item (USD mm) | Oct 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | |---|---:|---:| | Cash & cash equivalents | 11,486 ["Cash and cash equivalents"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 8,589 ["Cash and cash equivalents"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Marketable securities | 49,122 ["Marketable securities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 34,621 ["Marketable securities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Accounts receivable, net | 33,391 ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 23,065 ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Inventories | 19,784 ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 10,080 ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Total assets | 161,148 ["Total assets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 111,601 ["Total assets"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Short‑term debt | 999 ["Short-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | — ["Short-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Long‑term debt | 7,468 ["Long-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 8,463 ["Long-term debt"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Total shareholders’ equity | 118,897 ["Total shareholders' equity"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 79,327 ["Total shareholders' equity"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | **What to watch:** receivables + inventories expanded sharply alongside revenue, and the filings show significant supply/production commitments (next section). ["Accounts receivable"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Inventories"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ### C2) Cash flow and capital return “tells” Source: 10‑Q condensed consolidated cash flow statement (nine months ended). ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | Cash flow (USD mm) | 9M ended Oct 26, 2025 | 9M ended Oct 27, 2024 | |---|---:|---:| | Net cash from operations | 66,530 ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | 47,460 ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Capex + intangibles purchases | (4,758) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (2,159) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Stock repurchases (cash paid) | (36,271) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (25,895) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | | Dividends paid | (732) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | (589) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) | **Read on it:** NVDA is simultaneously (i) generating very large operating cash flows and (ii) returning enormous capital via buybacks, while also increasing capex—so the “real” reinvestment rate isn’t just R&D; it’s also infrastructure and supply commitments. ["Net cash provided by operating activities"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Purchases related to property"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ### C3) Commitments: supply/production + cloud capacity (important for durability vs. flexibility) The 10‑Q discloses very large forward commitments: - **Manufacturing production / supply / capacity commitments:** **$50.3B**, “substantially all” to be paid through FY2027. ["these commitments were $50.3 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["paid through fiscal year 2027"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Multi-year cloud service agreement commitments:** **$26B** with an annual payment schedule out through “2031 & thereafter.” ["Multi-year cloud service agreement commitments"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["$26 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) **Why it matters (mechanics):** These disclosures indicate NVDA is locking in both **hardware supply capacity** and **cloud capacity** to support R&D and DGX Cloud, which can improve execution certainty but can also raise downside risk if demand or product mix shifts. ["We expect cloud service agreements"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["long lead and cycle times"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## D) Risk map (filings language, then “what it implies”) ### D1) Export controls & geopolitics (strategic risk, not just compliance) The 10‑K states export controls have already harmed competitive position and further changes could further harm results, including potentially excluding NVDA “from all or part of the China market,” and mentions other impacted markets (Middle East and “Tier 2” countries). ["competitive position has been harmed"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["excluding us from all or part of the China market"](0001045810-25-000023|0) **Implication:** This is a *structural* risk because it can force product redesigns, change addressable market, and interact with supply chain location constraints (the filing explicitly links export controls to supply chain resiliency). ["supply chain, which is currently concentrated"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ### D2) Supply chain concentration The same risk discussion notes the supply chain is “currently concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region,” and that export controls “could limit alternative manufacturing locations.” ["concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["could limit alternative manufacturing locations"](0001045810-25-000023|0) **Implication:** Even with strong demand, the binding constraint can become (a) permitted destinations and (b) manufacturable configurations—not just wafers or packaging availability. --- ## E) Governance & incentives (proxy disclosures you can sanity-check) ### E1) Executive pay design: what they say they optimize for The proxy frames executive compensation as “pay for performance,” with heavy performance-based weighting (e.g., “over 90% of our CEO’s… target pay… performance-based and at-risk” and “100% of our CEO’s equity awards… PSUs”). ["over 90% of our CEO’s"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["100% of our CEO’s equity awards"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### E2) The performance scorecard they used (FY2025) The proxy shows: - Variable cash tied to **Fiscal 2025 revenue** thresholds/base/stretch. - Annual PSUs tied to **Fiscal 2025 Non‑GAAP operating income**. - Multi-year PSUs tied to **3‑year TSR vs S&P 500**. ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Non-GAAP Operating Income"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["TSR relative to the S&P 500"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ### E3) CEO compensation table (FY2025) From the **Summary Compensation Table** (proxy): CEO (Jen‑Hsun Huang) FY2025 total compensation **$49.866M**, including salary **$1.486M**, stock awards **$38.811M**, and non‑equity incentive comp **$6.0M**. ["Jen-Hsun Huang"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Total ($)"](0001045810-25-000095|0) --- ## “Interactive” self-checks you can run immediately (no extra inputs needed) ### 1) Segment concentration check (latest 10‑Q) Compute & Networking contributed **$50.908B of $57.006B** revenue in Q3 FY26 (10‑Q), i.e., ~89% (computed). ["Revenue"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### 2) Customer concentration (latest 10‑Q) The 10‑Q states that in Q3 FY26, **four direct customers** were each >10% of revenue (22%, 15%, 13%, 11%), all in Compute & Networking. ["four direct customers"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["22%"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ### 3) Capital return aggressiveness (latest 10‑Q) Over the first nine months of FY26, NVDA paid **$36.271B** for repurchases and **$0.732B** in dividends. ["Payments related to repurchases"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["Dividends paid"](0001045810-25-000230|0) --- ## If you want a “next click” (you can pick any one) - **Moat teardown:** map “platform + ecosystem + switching costs” to the two segments described in the 10‑Q. ["The Compute & Networking segment includes"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Financial durability stress test:** combine (i) customer concentration, (ii) export control risk, and (iii) $50.3B supply commitments into one downside narrative. ["four direct customers"](0001045810-25-000230|0) ["export control rules"](0001045810-25-000023|0) ["commitments were $50.3 billion"](0001045810-25-000230|0) - **Governance/comp alignment audit:** trace proxy performance metrics back to 10‑K/10‑Q GAAP outcomes and margin path. ["Fiscal 2025 Revenue"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Non-GAAP Operating Income"](0001045810-25-000095|0) ["Operating income"](0001045810-25-000023|0) If you tell me which “next click” you want, I’ll expand that module into a full mini‑report using the same filings-only evidence style.