Dycom Industries (DY) Stock Deep Dive: Backlog & Risks
Filings-driven analysis of Dycom (NYSE: DY): business model, customer concentration (AT&T, Lumen, Comcast), non-GAAP backlog, cash flow, capex, buybacks and debt covenants.
## Dycom Industries (NYSE: DY) — filings-driven deep dive
**Executive takeaway:** Dycom is a U.S.-focused specialty contractor whose core economic engine is executing large, multi-year telecom network buildouts (especially fiber programs) under master service agreements (MSAs) and work orders, with meaningful customer concentration and a “backlog” metric that is *directionally useful but inherently non-GAAP and cancellable*. ["specialty contracting services throughout the United States"](0000067215-25-000038|0) ["Backlog is not a measure defined"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["customers are not contractually committed"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
---
# 1) What DY *does* (business model in one page)
### Service lines (how revenue is generated)
DY discloses contract revenues by customer type (telecom vs locating vs other utilities), which is a practical way to understand “what they do” operationally. For example, in the quarter ended **Oct 25, 2025**, telecom was **$1,329.1m** and **91.6%** of contract revenues, while underground facility locating was **$86.7m** (**6.0%**). ["Telecommunications | $ | 1,329.1"](0000067215-25-000079|0) ["Underground facility locating | 86.7"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
### Contract structure (why volume isn’t guaranteed)
DY emphasizes that MSAs and similar agreements often don’t commit the customer to specific volumes, and work is driven via discrete work orders—important when interpreting “backlog” and forward revenue confidence. ["customers are not contractually committed"](0000067215-25-000079|0) ["performed pursuant to these agreements"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
---
# 2) The “customer concentration” lens (the single most important structural risk)
DY’s filings are very explicit that revenues are concentrated, and they expect that to continue. ["customer base is highly concentrated"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
### Customer concentration (FY2025 vs FY2024 vs FY2023)
*(Percent of total contract revenues; table is from the FY2025 10-K.)*
| Customer | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| AT&T | 20.1% ["AT&T, Inc. | 20.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 16.9% ["January 27, 2024 | 16.9%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 25.2% ["January 28, 2023 | 25.2%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Lumen | 12.1% ["Lumen Technologies, Inc. | 12.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 15.6% ["January 27, 2024 | 15.6%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 12.7% ["January 28, 2023 | 12.7%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Comcast | 8.5% ["Comcast Corporation | 8.5%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 10.7% ["January 27, 2024 | 10.7%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 11.3% ["January 28, 2023 | 11.3%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Charter | 7.3% ["Charter Communications, Inc. | 7.3%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 4.4% ["January 27, 2024 | 4.4%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 1.8% ["January 28, 2023 | 1.8%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Brightspeed | 6.6% ["Brightspeed | 6.6%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 4.7% ["January 27, 2024 | 4.7%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 1.0% ["January 28, 2023 | 1.0%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Verizon | 6.1% ["Verizon Communications, Inc. | 6.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 9.0% ["January 27, 2024 | 9.0%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 9.1% ["January 28, 2023 | 9.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Frontier | 6.0% ["Frontier Communications Corporation | 6.0%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 5.1% ["January 27, 2024 | 5.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 8.5% ["January 28, 2023 | 8.5%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
**How to use this table (interactive, self-guided):**
- If you’re underwriting DY, treat customer mix shifts (e.g., AT&T down vs FY2023, Charter/Brightspeed up) as a *leading indicator* of capex cycle rotation and bidding/award dynamics. ["will fluctuate"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
- DY also notes many MSAs may be terminated for convenience—so concentration and contractual non-commitment compound. ["may terminate an agreement for convenience"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
---
# 3) Backlog: what it means, why it matters, and where it misleads
DY’s backlog is explicitly **non-GAAP**, and management cautions it’s uncertain, can shift timing, and can be affected by cancellations, delays, customer spending, weather, permitting, etc. ["Backlog is not a measure"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["customers are not contractually committed"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["subject to change due to a number of factors"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
### Backlog snapshots (selected disclosures)
| As of date | Backlog (USD bn) | Expected to complete next 12 months |
|---|---:|---:|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 6.917 ["$6.917 billion"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | — |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 7.760 ["$7.760 billion"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 59.8% ["complete 59.8%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Apr 26, 2025 | 8.127 ["totaled $8.127 billion"](0000067215-25-000038|0) | 57.6% ["complete 57.6%"](0000067215-25-000038|0) |
| Jul 26, 2025 | 7.989 ["totaled $7.989 billion"](0000067215-25-000058|0) | 57.6% ["complete 57.6%"](0000067215-25-000058|0) |
**What to watch (interactive checklist):**
1. **Backlog level** (directional demand).
2. **12‑month conversion %** (near-term workload).
3. **Customer mix changes + M&A at customers** (explicitly called out as a backlog driver). ["merger or acquisition activity of our customers"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
---
# 4) Financial performance (FY2025 vs FY2024)
DY reports “contract revenues” and provides an income statement view with costs, G&A, D&A, and below-the-line items.
### Income statement summary (USD billions, unless noted)
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Contract revenues | 4.7020 ["Contract revenues | $ | 4,702.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 4.1756 ["$ | 4,175.6"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.5264 (computed) ["4,702.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["4,175.6"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Costs of earned revenues (ex‑D&A) | 3.7699 ["Costs of earned revenues"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 3.3618 ["3,361.8"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.4081 (computed) ["3,769.9"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["3,361.8"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| G&A | 0.3930 ["General and administrative | 393.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 0.3277 ["327.7"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.0653 (computed) ["393.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["327.7"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Depreciation & amortization | 0.1986 ["Depreciation and amortization | 198.6"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 0.1631 ["163.1"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.0355 (computed) ["198.6"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["163.1"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Income before tax | 0.3078 ["Income before income taxes | 307.8"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 0.2920 ["292.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.0158 (computed) ["307.8"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["292.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Net income | 0.2334 ["Net income | $ | 233.4"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 0.2189 ["$ | 218.9"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | +0.0145 (computed) ["233.4"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["218.9"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
**Acquisitions show up directly in revenue:** DY discloses acquired revenues of **$379.7m** in FY2025 vs **$102.7m** in FY2024. ["Contract revenues from acquired businesses were $379.7 million"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["$102.7 million"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
---
# 5) Cash flow and working capital behavior (why DY can look “lumpy”)
### Net cash flow summary (USD millions)
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---:|---:|
| Net cash from operating activities | 349.1 ["Provided by operating activities | $ | 349.1"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | 259.0 ["$ | 259.0"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Net cash used in investing activities | (395.2) ["Used in investing activities | $ | (395.2)"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | (306.2) ["$ | (306.2)"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
| Net cash from (used in) financing activities | 37.7 ["Provided by (used in) financing activities | $ | 37.7"](0000067215-25-000012|0) | (75.9) ["$ | (75.9)"](0000067215-25-000012|0) |
### DSO (working-capital efficiency indicator)
DY defines DSO and reports **114 days** (Jan 25, 2025) vs **120 days** (Jan 27, 2024). ["Our DSO was 114 days and 120 days"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
**Interpretation:** DY’s cash generation is highly sensitive to accounts receivable/contract assets timing because they often incur project costs (labor/subcontract/materials) before billing/collecting. ["project costs… required to be paid before"](0000067215-23-000064|0)
---
# 6) Near-term operating trend (most recent quarter in filings)
For the quarter ended **Oct 25, 2025**, DY reported:
- Contract revenues **$1,451.8m** vs **$1,272.0m** prior year quarter. ["Contract revenues | $ | 1,451,798"](0000067215-25-000079|0) ["$ | 1,272,007"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
- Net income **$106.4m** vs **$69.8m**. ["Net income | $ | 106,365"](0000067215-25-000079|0) ["$ | 69,789"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
- Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin **15.1%** vs **13.4%** (as presented by the company in the 10‑Q). ["Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA % of contract revenues | 15.1"](0000067215-25-000079|0) ["13.4"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
DY attributes the revenue increase (ex-acquired revenue) primarily to fiber-to-the-home deployments, including rural fiber programs. ["primarily due to net revenue increases in fiber-to-the-home deployments"](0000067215-25-000079|0)
---
# 7) Capital allocation: capex, buybacks, and M&A (and how they fit together)
### Capex + acquisitions (FY2025 investing cash uses)
DY discloses FY2025 capex and acquisition spend in the cash flow statement:
- Capex **$250.457m** and acquisition cash outflow **$183.876m** (net of cash acquired). ["Capital expenditures | (250,457)"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["Cash paid for acquisitions… | (183,876)"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
### Share repurchases (authorization + actual)
- FY2025 repurchased **410,000 shares** for **$65.640m** (avg **$160.10**). ["Fiscal 2025 | 410,000"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["$ | 65,640"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["$ | 160.10"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
- Board authorized a **new $150m repurchase program through Aug 2026** (replacing the remaining amount from the prior program). ["authorized a new $150 million"](0000067215-25-000038|0) ["through August 2026"](0000067215-25-000038|0)
**How to think about it (interactive framing):**
- If backlog + customer awards are strong, the “default” use of cash tends to be **fleet capex** and **working capital** first, because the model needs trucks/equipment + liquidity to execute. ["Capital resources are used primarily to purchase equipment"](0000067215-23-000064|0)
- Buybacks appear as the *flex lever*—but are constrained by leverage targets, covenant math, and acquisition needs. ["our ability to… redeem or repurchase"](0000067215-24-000014|0)
---
# 8) Balance sheet & debt: the credit agreement “regime” (key constraints)
### Baseline credit agreement constraints (as described in the FY2024 10‑K)
DY highlights that the credit agreement includes covenants restricting dividends/repurchases, additional debt, investments, liens, etc., plus financial maintenance tests. ["contains covenants that restrict"](0000067215-24-000014|0) ["consolidated net leverage ratio"](0000067215-24-000014|0) ["consolidated interest coverage ratio"](0000067215-24-000014|0)
### Major *change event*: Dec 23, 2025 amended & restated credit agreement (8‑K)
DY disclosed that, on the closing date (Power Solutions acquisition), it amended/restated its credit agreement with several key changes: maturity (term loan A + revolver) extended to **Dec 23, 2030**, revolver increased to **$800m**, and term loan A increased to **$1,540m**. ["extends the scheduled maturity date… to December 23, 2030"](0001193125-25-330970|0) ["increases the commitments… to $800.0 million"](0001193125-25-330970|0) ["increases the Term Loan A Facility… to $1,540 million"](0001193125-25-330970|0)
It also discloses leverage/coverage covenant levels (with step-down timing). ["maintain a consolidated net leverage ratio"](0001193125-25-330970|0) ["maintain a consolidated interest coverage ratio above 2.50:1.00"](0001193125-25-330970|0)
---
# 9) A few “filings-only” risks that matter most (and how they connect)
1) **Customer concentration + termination for convenience** is not just a risk factor—it’s structurally embedded in the contracting model. ["highly concentrated"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["terminate an agreement for convenience"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
2) **Backlog uncertainty** is explicitly tied to customer spending priorities, permitting/engineering, weather, and cancellations—i.e., execution + macro + customer capex all at once. ["project accelerations or delays"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
3) **Leverage/covenant constraints** can reduce flexibility around acquisitions or buybacks in down-cycles. ["impose restrictions"](0000067215-24-000014|0) ["failure to comply… could result in the acceleration"](0000067215-24-000014|0)
---
# 10) Self-guided “interactive” drill-down modules (no extra inputs needed)
If you want to go deeper later, here are plug-in modules I can generate *using only additional filing extracts*:
- **(A) Customer-by-customer narrative**: what a 20% AT&T exposure implies for revenue volatility vs. diversification trend. ["AT&T, Inc. | 20.1%"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
- **(B) Backlog-quality scorecard**: convertibility %, cancellation language, and lagging indicators (DSO/contract assets). ["complete 59.8%"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["Our DSO was 114 days"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
- **(C) Capital allocation “math”**: reconcile OCF → capex → acquisitions → buybacks across FY2024–FY2025. ["Provided by operating activities | $ | 349.1"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["Capital expenditures | (250,457)"](0000067215-25-000012|0) ["Repurchase of common stock | (65,640)"](0000067215-25-000012|0)
- **(D) Credit agreement covenant map**: what changed in Dec 2025, and where optionality/constraints likely sit (baskets, leverage steps). ["amended and restated"](0001193125-25-330970|0) ["4.50:1.00"](0001193125-25-330970|0)
If you’d like me to expand any of those modules, I can do it without needing any additional context—by pulling the relevant additional sections from the same filings/disclosures already identified.
